The result of the 2024 presidential election will ultimately be decided on Tuesday, November 5, as millions of Americans and US citizens go to the polls to make their choice.
As the momentous election approaches between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, numerous pollsters have shared their forecasts regarding the outcome. Nonetheless, the 2024 election includes greater legal betting on the presidential contest than it has in the past. These betting markets, according to their advocates, are more precise predictors of election outcomes.
Election betting markets are functioning legally, at least for now, while a federal court case concerning their legality is still in progress. Meanwhile, state gaming authorities are cautioning consumers that no licensed, regulated sportsbook is permitted to accept wagers on political happenings.
"We know elections sometimes feel like a sport, but the reality is they are not,” said Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection Commissioner Bryan Cafferelli. The state agency oversees gaming in Connecticut.
“Wagering on an unlicensed platform just to bet on an election leaves consumers’ personal information and money vulnerable to theft and fraud. Any platform offering wagers on the election is unregulated by the Department of Consumer Protection. No licensed platform may offer wagers on election outcomes in Connecticut,” Cafferelli added.
National Decision
In September, a federal appeals court supported Kalshi, an online political betting exchange that employs derivatives and functions on a peer-to-peer basis. The court stated that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exceeded its powers when it instructed platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt to cease accepting wagers on US elections.
The CFTC contended that betting on elections threatens the integrity of elections in the US. An independent agency of the US government, the CFTC also stated that permitting election betting markets would compel the commission to shift from being a financial markets regulator to “the role of an election enforcer.”
The Washington, DC Circuit Court of Appeals held a differing opinion.
"Ensuring the integrity of elections and avoiding improper interference and misinformation are undoubtedly paramount public interests, and a substantiated risk of distorting the electoral process would amount to irreparable harm. The problem is that the CFTC has given this court no concrete basis to conclude that event contracts would likely be a vehicle for such harms,” the ruling read.
Connecticut is not the only state cautioning consumers against participation, even though the federal stance currently permits Kalshi to accept election wagers from players based in the US. The Gambling Commission of Washington State also provided their input.
“They are not legal,” said Washington State Gambling Commission Communications Director Troy Kirby. “The illegal component is that there’s a consideration, money involved. If you decide to take that chance, it’s at your own risk.”
Federal Law Prevails Over State
Contessa Brewer, a reporter for CNBC focusing on the gambling industry, raised concerns about how betting platforms were engaging in the presidential race without having state-issued gaming licenses. She urged the New York State Gaming Commission to reply through X.
"Kalshi does not have a gaming license. Betting on the election is not permitted in New York, not in any state,” she tweeted. “And yet Kalshi is boldly proclaiming ‘Live Bets’ on its NYC advertising.”
Brewer provided clarification in a follow-up to the post.
“A legal expert tells me no state regulators will be able to take action against Kalshi because the federal agency CFTC rules supersede state rules. Kalshi is able to operate because a court sided with the platform when it argued it’s not gambling,” Brewer wrote.
