In the initial significant political challenge for the reliability of prediction markets following the 2024 presidential election, New Yorkers are casting their votes today in primaries that will determine the city’s mayoral candidates, with Kalshi users quickly shifting their sentiments in the past few days.
The Democratic primary, which will effectively determine the next mayor in the deeply blue city, has quickly shifted in Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani's favor recently, suggesting that former Gov. Andrew Cuomo's political resurgence might be near. The Kalshi chart below shows that Cuomo's support among the platform's users has recently declined, while Mamdani has gained substantial traction.
A Kalshi chart showing bettors favoring Zohran Mamdani over Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayoral race. (Image: Kalshi)
As of this moment, Mamdani has a 54% to 47% advantage over Cuomo, based on Kalshi data. His rise in the prediction market has been remarkable. Kalshi's co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour informed The New York Post that the assemblyman had only 18% backing last Friday and under 25% during the weekend.
Kalshi remains detached from the partisan political battles and does not explicitly support Cuomo or Mamdani. Nonetheless, the platform has turned into a preferred spot for gamblers and investors eager to bet on political contests — an option that regulated sportsbooks cannot provide in this nation. Kalshi gained prominence during and after the 2024 presidential election when Donald Trump Jr. mentioned he utilized Kalshi to determine that his father had “won hours before the false news media.” Trump Jr. is currently an advisor for Kalshi.
Kalshi's Predictive Ability Might Be Evaluated
Although Kalshi users appeared correct regarding the 2024 presidential race, the New York City mayoral election might pose a distinct challenge for the futures market because of certain factors that are arguably going unnoticed.
Initially, Kalshi and other prediction markets, much to the frustration of sportsbook operators, are able to provide their derivatives in every state. In other words, bettors lacking knowledge of New York politics are placing bets on the Democratic primary, which might be affecting Kalshi’s anticipated result — one that may not align with the actual outcome.
Additionally, the New York mayoral primary employs ranked-choice voting, a method not utilized in federal elections. In that system, New Yorkers have the option to choose up to five candidates on their ballots, and with 11 contenders competing for the opportunity to reside in Gracie Mansion, the chances of any one candidate achieving the 50% needed for a clear win are low. Ranked-choice voting may require several rounds of tabulation to determine a winner, and some bettors on Kalshi are at ease with that bet.
NYC Mayor Election Showcases Imperfect Contenders
Both Cuomo and Mamdani have their flaws. The ex-governor had to step down due to claims of sexual misconduct and has faced backlash for his management of the coronavirus crisis in New York. Certain critics claim that the decision made by the former governor to transfer COVID-19 patients to nursing homes led to such a high number of deaths that it resulted in New York losing a congressional seat in the 2020 census.
Cuomo has connections to the gaming sector, recently receiving support from Barry Diller, whose IAC/InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ: IAC) is the largest shareholder of MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM). Cuomo signed the law that permitted online sports betting in the Empire State.
Mamdani, a two-term assembly representative, is characterized as a socialist and is advocating for extremely progressive proposals like government-operated grocery stores and rent regulation, among other initiatives. Some New York business leaders find his views alarming, fearing that Mamdani would rule even further left than some of the most progressive mayors in major US cities.
